Weekly Market Breadth Report — May 15, 2026
Corrected 18 August 2026. This post was produced by an earlier breadth/regime engine later found to contain calculation errors. In this post: advance/decline figures were computed from a contaminated series and have been recomputed from the corrected data; one regime-signal takeaway was reworded — the signal did fire, but its forward-return framing did not survive revalidation; forward-return claims that rested on a backtest of the same faulty series have been dropped; 3 charts plotted from the old engine have been removed; the 'what happened' scorecard on the previous week's takeaways has been dropped. Price data, signal counts, ETF tables and index moves are unaffected.
This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Market Overview
S&P 500 was roughly flat this week (+0.1%) to 7,408. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -0.8% to 154. Momentum is weak (1/6) while trend structure holds strong (5/6). A pullback within an uptrend. Best performer: S&P 500 (+0.1%). Weakest: Russell 2000 (-2.4%).
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | 1Y Avg | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Signal % | 43.3% | 61.6% | 56.3% | -2.0 |
| Bullish Signals | 115,254 | 127,853 | ||
| Bearish Signals | 150,874 | 79,695 |
This week's net balance skews bearish relative to the 1-year norm (z=-2.0).
Key Takeaways
- 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,408 (+0.1%).
- 🟢 Breadth: Momentum is weak (1/6) while trend is strong (5/6). A pullback within an uptrend.
- 🔴 Breadth — Advance / Decline: At an extreme reading (z=-1.9). Uncommon weakness — could mark a washout or further downside.
- 🟡 Dow Jones: McClellan Oscillator crossed below zero — breadth momentum shifted from positive to negative. Descriptive context only; zero-crosses showed no forward edge in our backtest.
Stocks with the Most Signals
Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Signals | Net | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300308.SZ | Zhongji Innolight Co., Ltd. | Technology | 29 | +25 | +18% |
| 5803.T | Fujikura Ltd. | Industrials | 28 | +10 | -12% |
| 688234.SS | SICC Co., Ltd. | Technology | 28 | +22 | +46% |
| 600584.SS | JCET Group Co., Ltd. | Technology | 28 | +18 | +14% |
| ZTS | Zoetis Inc. | Healthcare | 28 | -22 | -10% |
| 002008.SZ | Han's Laser Technology Industr | Industrials | 27 | +21 | +17% |
| 011070.KS | LG Innotek Co., Ltd. | Technology | 26 | +22 | +17% |
| 688120.SS | Hwatsing Technology Co., Ltd. | Technology | 26 | +24 | +36% |
Momentum Breadth
Short-term oscillators and price velocity indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance / Decline | -24,010 | +8,786 | -32,796 | -1.9 | Flipped bearish |
| New 20D High/Low | -6,164 | +5,256 | -11,420 | -1.3 | Flipped bearish |
| MACD Breadth | -3,631 | +607 | -4,238 | -1.3 | Flipped bearish |
| RSI Extremes | -2,229 | -1,102 | -1,127 | -0.9 | Weakening |
| Bollinger Band | -2,057 | -1,514 | -543 | -0.2 | Weakening |
| Weekly Movers (±10%) | +2,913 | +6,482 | -3,569 | -0.2 | Deteriorating |
Trend Breadth
Longer-term structural indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52-Week High/Low | +1,725 | +2,883 | -1,158 | -0.7 | Deteriorating |
| Fresh 52W High/Low | +136 | +508 | -372 | -1.1 | Deteriorating |
| 200 DMA Breadth | +4,347 | +8,239 | -3,892 | -0.9 | Deteriorating |
| MA Cross (Golden/Death) | -295 | -197 | -98 | -1.1 | Weakening |
| HH/HL Structure | +112 | +216 | -104 | -0.1 | Deteriorating |
| Breakout / Breakdown | +204 | +820 | -616 | -1.1 | Deteriorating |
Breakout / Breakdown weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.1.
Pattern Breadth
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Top/Bottom | -320 | +180 | -500 | -1.5 | Flipped bearish |
| Failed Pattern | -143 | +90 | -233 | -0.5 | Flipped bearish |
Major ETF Signals
| Ticker | Name | Momentum | Trend | Pattern | Net | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | 4↑ 6↓ | 6↑ | — | +4 | +0.1 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 4↑ 3↓ | 6↑ | — | +7 | +0.7 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | 2↑ 9↓ | 2↑ | — | -5 | -1.4 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | 6↓ | — | — | -6 | -1.1 |
| EWJ | Japan | 2↑ 4↓ | — | — | -2 | -0.9 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | 5↓ | 1↓ | — | -6 | -1.6 |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | 1↑ 3↓ | 1↓ | — | -3 | -1.1 |
| GLD | Gold | 3↓ | 2↓ | — | -5 | -1.4 |
| EFA | EAFE (Dev ex-US) | 3↓ | 1↓ | — | -4 | -1.3 |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 4↓ | — | — | -4 | -1.2 |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | 1↑ 2↓ | — | — | -1 | -0.4 |
| USO | Oil (USO) | 1↑ | — | — | +1 | +0.2 |
IWM weekly net signals (bars) with IWM price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.6.
Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)
| Sector | Net | % Bullish | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +315 | 55.1% | +0.5 |
| Utilities | -372 | 43.7% | -1.5 |
| Communication Services | -866 | 39.7% | -1.8 |
| Consumer Defensive | -1,407 | 39.9% | -2.0 |
| Real Estate | -1,564 | 37.3% | -2.1 |
| Financial Services | -2,079 | 41.2% | -1.7 |
| Basic Materials | -2,252 | 40.6% | -1.6 |
| Healthcare | -2,550 | 38.7% | -1.7 |
| Technology | -2,706 | 42.2% | -1.3 |
| Consumer Cyclical | -3,408 | 38.3% | -1.9 |
| Industrials | -4,595 | 40.3% | -1.7 |
What to Watch Next Week
- MA Cross (Golden/Death) at -295. Continuing to weaken.
- Weekly Movers (±10%) leading at +2,913. Watch for continuation vs exhaustion.
- Advance / Decline just flipped — need follow-through to confirm.
Last Week We Said
From our report on May 08:
- 🟢 S&P 500: Rallied +2.3% to 7,399. Both momentum and trend breadth are positive — the rally has broad participation.
- 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +2.5%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
- 🟡 Breadth: Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend is strong (5/6). The structural move may already be priced in.
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