Weekly Market Breadth Report — April 10, 2026
Corrected 18 August 2026. This post was produced by an earlier breadth/regime engine later found to contain calculation errors. In this post: advance/decline figures were computed from a contaminated series and have been recomputed from the corrected data; one regime-signal takeaway was reworded — the signal did fire, but its forward-return framing did not survive revalidation; forward-return claims that rested on a backtest of the same faulty series have been dropped; 2 charts plotted from the old engine have been removed; the 'what happened' scorecard on the previous week's takeaways has been dropped. Price data, signal counts, ETF tables and index moves are unaffected.
This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Market Overview
S&P 500 rallied this week (+3.6%) to 6,817. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +4.0% to 145. Momentum is strong (5/6) with trend in the mid-range (3/6). Broad short-term participation while the structural picture is mixed. Best performer: Nikkei 225 (+7.2%). Weakest: FTSE 100 (+1.6%).
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | 1Y Avg | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Signal % | 66.7% | 55.8% | 54.9% | +1.4 |
| Bullish Signals | 112,561 | 94,462 | ||
| Bearish Signals | 56,214 | 74,960 |
This week's net balance skews bullish relative to the 1-year norm (z=+1.4).
Key Takeaways
- 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +3.6% to 6,817, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
- 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +4.0%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
- 🟢 Breadth: Momentum is strong (5/6) with trend in the mid-range (3/6). Broad short-term participation while the structural picture is still mixed. Need trend confirmation for a sustained move. Trend is recovering.
- 🟢 Breadth — Failed Pattern: At an extreme reading (z=+2.5). Uncommon strength suggesting real conviction.
- 🟡 Nikkei 225: McClellan Oscillator crossed below zero — breadth momentum shifted from positive to negative. Descriptive context only; zero-crosses showed no forward edge in our backtest.
Stocks with the Most Signals
Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Signals | Net | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXSE3.SA | Caixa Seguridade Participações | Financial Services | 25 | +21 | +6% |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | Technology | 25 | +23 | +21% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Technology | 24 | +20 | +20% |
| ADANIENSOL.NS | Adani Energy Solutions Limited | Utilities | 24 | +24 | +23% |
| NOKIA.HE | Nokia Oyj | Technology | 23 | +19 | +9% |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | Industrials | 23 | -15 | -16% |
| PRY.MI | Prysmian S.p.A. | Industrials | 23 | +23 | +14% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | Industrials | 22 | +20 | +13% |
Momentum Breadth
Short-term oscillators and price velocity indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance / Decline | +21,086 | -1,288 | +22,374 | +1.7 | Flipped bullish |
| New 20D High/Low | +8,081 | -4,325 | +12,406 | +0.8 | Flipped bullish |
| MACD Breadth | +6,490 | +3,744 | +2,746 | +2.2 | Strengthening |
| RSI Extremes | +299 | +1,596 | -1,297 | +0.5 | Deteriorating |
| Bollinger Band | -2,592 | +2,022 | -4,614 | -0.5 | Flipped bearish |
| Weekly Movers (±10%) | +9,552 | +565 | +8,987 | +1.1 | Strengthening |
MACD Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.2.
Trend Breadth
Longer-term structural indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52-Week High/Low | +2,402 | -874 | +3,276 | -0.1 | Flipped bullish |
| Fresh 52W High/Low | +691 | -55 | +746 | +0.4 | Flipped bullish |
| 200 DMA Breadth | -751 | -8,102 | +7,351 | -1.0 | Improving |
| MA Cross (Golden/Death) | -368 | -396 | +28 | -1.4 | Stable |
| HH/HL Structure | -647 | -4 | -643 | -0.9 | Weakening |
| Breakout / Breakdown | +667 | +156 | +511 | -0.4 | Strengthening |
MA Cross (Golden/Death) weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.4.
Pattern Breadth
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Top/Bottom | +204 | -331 | +535 | +0.3 | Flipped bullish |
| Failed Pattern | +623 | +218 | +405 | +2.5 | Strengthening |
Major ETF Signals
| Ticker | Name | Momentum | Trend | Pattern | Net | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil (USO) | 3↑ 6↓ | 4↑ | — | +1 | +0.0 |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 4↑ 1↓ | 1↑ | — | +4 | +0.7 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 3↑ | 2↑ | — | +5 | +0.7 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | 3↑ | 1↑ | — | +4 | +0.7 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | 2↑ 2↓ | — | — | +0 | -0.3 |
| SPY | S&P 500 | 2↑ | 2↑ | — | +4 | +0.3 |
| EWJ | Japan | 3↓ | — | — | -3 | -1.2 |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | 3↓ | — | — | -3 | -0.9 |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | — | 1↑ 1↓ | — | +0 | -0.2 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | 1↓ | 1↑ | — | +0 | -0.5 |
| EFA | EAFE (Dev ex-US) | 1↓ | — | — | -1 | -0.8 |
| GLD | Gold | — | 1↑ | — | +1 | -0.2 |
EWJ weekly net signals (bars) with EWJ price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.2.
Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)
| Sector | Net | % Bullish | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | +4,867 | 61.5% | +1.6 |
| Technology | +3,133 | 60.3% | +1.5 |
| Financial Services | +2,852 | 62.7% | +1.9 |
| Basic Materials | +2,621 | 62.1% | +1.7 |
| Consumer Cyclical | +2,563 | 59.7% | +1.6 |
| Real Estate | +1,292 | 61.4% | +1.7 |
| Consumer Defensive | +821 | 56.3% | +1.4 |
| Healthcare | +798 | 53.9% | +0.8 |
| Communication Services | +501 | 56.5% | +1.3 |
| Utilities | +459 | 58.6% | +1.4 |
| Energy | +7 | 50.1% | -0.3 |
What to Watch Next Week
- 200 DMA Breadth at -751. Improving but still negative.
- Advance / Decline leading at +21,086. Watch for continuation vs exhaustion.
- New 20D High/Low just flipped — need follow-through to confirm.
Last Week We Said
From our report on April 03:
- 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +3.4% to 6,583. Short-term momentum breadth (5/6 positive) is confirming the bounce, but trend structure (1/6 positive) hasn't turned yet. This is the classic setup for a strong but potentially short-lived rally.
- 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +3.6%, tracking US markets. The rally is global, not just a US story.
- 🟡 Global breadth: Mixed signals this week. Breakout / Breakdown, Weekly Movers (±10%) flipped bullish, but HH/HL Structure turned bearish. The market is in transition — not yet a clear trend in either direction.
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