Weekly Market Breadth Report — September 04, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 was roughly flat this week (+0.1%) to 7,719. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +0.5% to 162. Momentum is weak (1/6) while trend is in the mid-range (4/6). Short-term selling pressure within a mixed structural backdrop — below-average forward returns historically. Best performer: MSCI World (ACWI) (+0.5%). Weakest: Nikkei 225 (-2.1%).

Slightly more bearish than the 1-year weekly average (z=-0.8).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,719 (+0.1%).
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum is weak (1/6) while trend is in the mid-range (4/6). Short-term selling pressure within a mixed structural backdrop — below-average forward returns. Momentum just weakened — a fresh deterioration in short-term indicators.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — Eastern Europe. 3 of the bottom 8 industry readings are Eastern Europe groups.
• 🟡 Industrials tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Asia ex-JP/CN, Japan; 1,138 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.
• 🟡 Consumer Defensive tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Eastern Europe, Japan; 141 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.
• 🟡 Healthcare tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Western Europe, United States; 744 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 64%, mid-zone. The overbought line at 80% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders: no industry cleared the ±1.8σ bar this week.

Signal laggards:

The read. The laggards are equally one theme — Eastern Europe — and there the composition inverts: of Asia ex-JP/CN Household & Personal Products's 146 bearish fires this week, 109 were trend-family breakdowns. The breakdown count says the downtrend is widening.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

Industrials tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Asia ex-JP/CN, Japan; 1,138 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Consumer Defensive tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Eastern Europe, Japan; 141 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Healthcare tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Western Europe, United States; 744 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Eastern Europe Industrials — Eastern Europe Conglomerates took the lead from Eastern Europe Transportation (08-31). - EEU — Eastern Europe Healthcare took the lead from Eastern Europe Utilities (08-31). - Asia ex-JP/CN Oil & Gas — Asia ex-JP/CN Oil & Gas E&P took the lead from Asia ex-JP/CN Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (09-01).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Eastern Europe Construction & Engineering printed a -36 net signal day on 09-01 (-2.7σ); Eastern Europe Engineering & Construction printed a -22 net signal day on 09-01 (-2.7σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Latin America is the disagreement worth watching: +5.9% on the week — the best price move of any region — while its signal net finished at +118 (-0.0σ, below its one-year norm). A rally the internals aren't attending is not automatically doomed, but it is the pattern we flag. Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -5.5% with a -1.7σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

MACD Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -0.9.

Trend Breadth

200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.2.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — second week inside 2σ.

HYG weekly net signals (bars) with HYG price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.2.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

Still no sector standing out — rotation without conviction, second week.

Basic Materials sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -0.8.

What to Watch Next Week

1. The thin-rally flags. Either breadth catches up (flags resolve quietly) or the first red week hits these groups hardest.
2. Latin America's internals. A positive signal week would validate the price move; another negative one deepens the flag.
3. 52-Week High/Low at +45 — nearest to a sign flip. Watch which side it picks.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Aug 28, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,712 (+0.5%).
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend is strong (5/6). The structural move may already be priced in — slightly below-average forward returns historically, though not significant.
• 🟢 MSCI World fired a bullish stochastic cross on Wednesday (chart, Aug 26, index at 4,972) — slow %K turned up through %D from the oversold zone. Since 2015, the five sessions after this cross have averaged +0.7% against +0.2% for a typ

Last week's report leaned bullish (1 green, 3 amber, 0 red). What happened: the S&P moved +0.1%. Mixed week, mixed call — no point claimed either way. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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