Weekly Market Breadth Report — August 21, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 fell this week (-1.4%) to 7,674. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -0.9% to 161. Momentum is weak (2/6) while trend structure holds strong (5/6). A pullback within an uptrend — near-baseline forward returns historically from this setup. Best performer: Hang Seng (+3.6%). Weakest: Nikkei 225 (-3.9%).

Slightly more bearish than the 1-year weekly average (z=-0.9).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Fell -1.4% to 7,674. Momentum is weakening but the underlying trend structure remains intact — likely a pullback, not a breakdown.
• 🟡 Breadth: Trend breadth just flipped to strong (5/6). Structurally constructive, but markets that have already completed the turn have delivered roughly flat 4-week returns vs a +1.1% baseline in our backtest.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — United States. 5 of the bottom 8 industry readings are United States groups.
• 🟡 Financial Services tripped the thin-rally flag in 4 regions this week (Asia ex-JP/CN, United States, Middle East & Africa, Western Europe; 1,268 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.
• 🟡 Consumer Cyclical tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (United States, Asia ex-JP/CN; 692 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.
• 🟡 IBIT is the outlier on the ETF board — net +13 signals, +2.3σ vs its one-year norm. Stretched readings more often mean-revert than continue, but the pressure has been persistent.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 70%, mid-zone. The overbought line at 80% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders: no industry cleared the ±1.8σ bar this week.

Signal laggards:

The read. The laggards are equally one theme — United States — and there the composition inverts: of United States Aerospace & Defense - Other's 285 bearish fires this week, 167 were trend-family breakdowns. The downtrend is intact and broadening.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

Financial Services tripped the thin-rally flag in 4 regions this week (Asia ex-JP/CN, United States, Middle East & Africa, Western Europe; 1,268 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Consumer Cyclical tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (United States, Asia ex-JP/CN; 692 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Western Europe Semiconductors — Western Europe Semiconductor Equipment & Materials took the lead from Western Europe Semiconductors - Other (08-18). - Japan Semiconductors — Japan Semiconductor Equipment & Materials took the lead from Japan Semiconductors - Other (08-19). - Western Europe Technology — Western Europe Software took the lead from Western Europe Semiconductors (08-18).

Sharpest single-day surprises: China Electronic Components printed a -633 net signal day on 08-19 (-3.0σ); China Semiconductors - Other printed a -309 net signal day on 08-19 (-2.9σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: United States is the weak tail of the board at -1.0σ.

Momentum Breadth

MACD Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.1.

Trend Breadth

200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.3.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

The one reading that stands out: IBIT (Bitcoin) at a net +13 signal count, 2.3 standard deviations above its one-year norm — the most stretched reading on the board. Readings this stretched have more often marked exhaustion than acceleration, but we'd want to see the first bearish trend-family signal before calling it.

IBIT weekly net signals (bars) with IBIT price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.3.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

No sector's advance/decline week stands out against its own year — rotation, not conviction.

Energy sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.1.

What to Watch Next Week

1. The thin-rally flags. Either breadth catches up (flags resolve quietly) or the first red week hits these groups hardest.
2. Failed Pattern at +6 — the closest breadth index to a sign flip. The side it lands on next week is information.
3. IBIT — the first bearish trend-family signal would mark the turn we're watching for.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Aug 14, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,786 (+0.4%).
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum (3/6) and trend (3/6) are both in the mid-range. Near-baseline forward returns — no strong directional signal from breadth.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (72% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Last week's report leaned cautious (0 green, 3 amber, 0 red). What happened: the S&P fell -1.4%. Score it a hit. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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