Weekly Market Breadth Report — July 31, 2026
Corrected 18 August 2026. This post was produced by an earlier breadth/regime engine later found to contain calculation errors. In this post: advance/decline figures were computed from a contaminated series and have been recomputed from the corrected data; one regime-signal takeaway was reworded — the signal did fire, but its forward-return framing did not survive revalidation; forward-return claims that rested on a backtest of the same faulty series have been dropped; 2 charts plotted from the old engine have been removed; the 'what happened' scorecard on the previous week's takeaways has been dropped; the momentum summary sentences, whose 'x of 6' tally counted the old advance/decline sign, have been removed — the corrected table below carries the momentum picture. Price data, signal counts, ETF tables and index moves are unaffected.
This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Market Overview
S&P 500 rallied this week (+1.0%) to 7,490. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +1.4% to 156. Best performer: Hang Seng (+3.7%). Weakest: Nikkei 225 (-0.4%).
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | 1Y Avg | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Signal % | 53.1% | 46.7% | 53.6% | -0.0 |
| Bullish Signals | 108,878 | 86,436 | ||
| Bearish Signals | 96,076 | 98,618 |
Signal balance is near its 1-year norm — nothing unusual this week.
Key Takeaways
- 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.0% to 7,490, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
- 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +1.4%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
- 🔴 Breadth — 200 DMA Breadth: At an extreme reading (z=-2.1). Uncommon weakness — could mark a washout or further downside.
- 🟡 S&P 500: McClellan Oscillator crossed below zero — breadth momentum shifted from positive to negative. Descriptive context only; zero-crosses showed no forward edge in our backtest.
Stocks with the Most Signals
Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Signals | Net | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDDY | GoDaddy Inc. | Technology | 22 | +2 | -11% |
| 4661.T | Oriental Land Co., Ltd. | Consumer Cyclical | 19 | +11 | +18% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 17 | +9 | +13% |
| LAURUSLABS.NS | Laurus Labs Limited | Healthcare | 17 | +15 | +13% |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 17 | +5 | +17% |
| 6702.T | Fujitsu Limited | Technology | 17 | +9 | +12% |
| DWS.DE | DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA | Financial Services | 17 | +5 | +3% |
| FTV | Fortive Corporation | Technology | 17 | -1 | -5% |
Momentum Breadth
Short-term oscillators and price velocity indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance / Decline | +7,195 | -8,966 | +16,161 | +0.7 | Flipped bullish |
| New 20D High/Low | -2,954 | -5,305 | +2,351 | -0.5 | Improving |
| MACD Breadth | +1,421 | -1,286 | +2,707 | +0.6 | Flipped bullish |
| RSI Extremes | +983 | +1,077 | -94 | +1.2 | Stable |
| Bollinger Band | +143 | +1,665 | -1,522 | +0.5 | Deteriorating |
| Weekly Movers (±10%) | -2,815 | -7,468 | +4,653 | -1.1 | Improving |
RSI Extremes weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.2.
Trend Breadth
Longer-term structural indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52-Week High/Low | -1,158 | -3,971 | +2,813 | -1.1 | Improving |
| Fresh 52W High/Low | -406 | -756 | +350 | -1.5 | Improving |
| 200 DMA Breadth | -25,898 | -26,036 | +138 | -2.1 | Stable |
| MA Cross (Golden/Death) | -133 | -280 | +147 | -0.5 | Improving |
| HH/HL Structure | +86 | +129 | -43 | -0.4 | Deteriorating |
| Breakout / Breakdown | +440 | +240 | +200 | -0.5 | Strengthening |
200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.1.
Pattern Breadth
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Top/Bottom | -269 | -397 | +128 | -0.8 | Improving |
| Failed Pattern | +202 | +110 | +92 | +1.1 | Strengthening |
Major ETF Signals
| Ticker | Name | Momentum | Trend | Pattern | Net | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | 1↑ 3↓ | 1↑ 5↓ | 1↓ | -7 | -2.2 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 5↑ 3↓ | 2↓ | — | +0 | -0.5 |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 4↑ 1↓ | 3↑ 1↓ | — | +5 | +0.9 |
| EFA | EAFE (Dev ex-US) | 2↑ 1↓ | 4↑ 1↓ | — | +4 | +0.5 |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | 5↑ 1↓ | 1↓ | — | +3 | +0.6 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | 5↑ 2↓ | — | — | +3 | +0.1 |
| SPY | S&P 500 | 5↑ 1↓ | 1↑ | — | +5 | +0.4 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | 4↑ 1↓ | — | — | +3 | +0.1 |
| USO | Oil (USO) | 2↓ | 1↑ 2↓ | — | -3 | -0.8 |
| GLD | Gold | — | 2↑ 2↓ | — | +0 | -0.5 |
| EWJ | Japan | 2↑ 1↓ | 1↑ | — | +2 | +0.1 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | — | 1↑ 2↓ | — | -1 | -0.1 |
TLT weekly net signals (bars) with TLT price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.2.
Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)
| Sector | Net | % Bullish | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Cyclical | +2,287 | 57.9% | +1.6 |
| Industrials | +1,825 | 53.9% | +0.8 |
| Consumer Defensive | +1,122 | 58.0% | +1.9 |
| Communication Services | +764 | 59.0% | +1.9 |
| Financial Services | +737 | 53.2% | +0.4 |
| Basic Materials | +596 | 52.5% | +0.5 |
| Healthcare | +572 | 52.5% | +0.7 |
| Technology | +277 | 50.8% | +0.3 |
| Real Estate | +118 | 51.0% | +0.2 |
| Energy | -112 | 48.2% | -0.4 |
| Utilities | -233 | 45.9% | -0.9 |
What to Watch Next Week
- 200 DMA Breadth at -25,898. Improving but still negative.
- MACD Breadth leading at +1,421. Watch for continuation vs exhaustion.
- MACD Breadth just flipped — need follow-through to confirm.
Last Week We Said
From our report on July 24:
- 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,412 (-0.6%).
- 🔴 Breadth — 200 DMA Breadth: At an extreme reading (z=-2.2). Uncommon weakness — could mark a washout or further downside.
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