Weekly Market Breadth Report — October 16, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 fell this week (-1.9%) to 7,659. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -2.0% to 158. Momentum is weak (2/6) while trend is in the mid-range (2/6). Short-term selling pressure within a mixed structural backdrop — below-average forward returns historically. Best performer: FTSE 100 (+3.1%). Weakest: Nikkei 225 (-5.4%).

Slightly more bearish than the 1-year weekly average (z=-0.8).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🔴 S&P 500: Fell -1.9% to 7,659. Breadth confirms the weakness.
• 🔴 MSCI World (ACWI): Lost -2.0% — selling pressure is global.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — United States. 4 of the bottom 8 industry readings are United States groups.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (52% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 52%, mid-zone. The overbought line at 80% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders:

Signal laggards:

The read. The strongest surge has trend-family confirmation: Western Europe Restaurants logged 67 bullish signals this week, 59 of them trend-type (breakouts, structure, moving-average confirmations) against 6 oversold-type. That is a rally the engine is confirming, not bottom-fishing.

The laggards are equally one theme — United States — and there the composition inverts: of Asia ex-JP/CN Semiconductor Equipment & Materials's 579 bearish fires this week, 422 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

The oversold nuance — read this before buying the dip. Inside that net-bearish week, the final session alone produced 69 bullish fires in Asia ex-JP/CN Semiconductor Equipment & Materials, and 50 of them were mean-reversion signals — oversold readings, not trend signals. The sell-off has pushed an unusually broad share of the group to statistically stretched levels. Readings like that are dip signals inside an intact downtrend — they mark where bounce candidates live, not a trend reversal. The tell that would change our read is the weekly net flipping positive. Until then, oversold means "stretched," not "safe."

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

5 divergence flags tripped this week (5 hidden-base), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Sharpest single-day surprises: Japan Semiconductor Equipment & Materials printed a -71 net signal day on 10-15 (-3.1σ); Japan Semiconductors printed a -107 net signal day on 10-15 (-3.1σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -6.1% with a -1.3σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

Weekly Movers (±10%) weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.0.

Trend Breadth

Fresh 52W High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.0.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 8 weeks running inside 2σ.

SPY weekly net signals (bars) with SPY price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.8.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

Still no sector standing out — rotation without conviction, 3 weeks running.

Healthcare sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.7.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Asia ex-JP/CN Semiconductor Equipment & Materials's weekly net. The final-session oversold wave (50 mean-reversion bullish fires) landed inside a week of trend breakdowns. The tell is the weekly net flipping positive — until then it's a bounce setup inside a downtrend, not a turn.
2. Failed Pattern at +17 — nearest to a sign flip. Watch which side it picks.
3. The confirmed rallies (Western Europe groups, +6% to +6% price weeks): whether trend-family confirmation persists, or the moves digest.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Oct 9, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.2% to 7,812, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 Breadth: Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend structure is weak (1/6). The trend has been broken but momentum has not collapsed — the strongest setup in our backtest: +3.4% average over the following 4 weeks vs +1.1% baseline (p<0.01). Trend is starting to recover from its lows.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (47% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Last week's report leaned bullish (1 green, 2 amber, 0 red). What happened: the S&P fell -1.9%. Wrong side. The bullish lean was wrong for the week. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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