Weekly Market Breadth Report — October 09, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 rallied this week (+1.2%) to 7,812. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +0.5% to 161. Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend structure is weak (1/6). The trend has been broken but momentum has not collapsed — the strongest setup in our backtest: +3.4% average over the following 4 weeks vs +1.1% baseline. Best performer: S&P 500 (+1.2%). Weakest: CAC 40 (-1.2%).

Signal balance is near its 1-year norm — nothing unusual this week.

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.2% to 7,812, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 Breadth: Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend structure is weak (1/6). The trend has been broken but momentum has not collapsed — the strongest setup in our backtest: +3.4% average over the following 4 weeks vs +1.1% baseline (p<0.01). Trend is starting to recover from its lows.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (47% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 47%, mid-zone. The washout line at 20% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders: no industry cleared the ±1.8σ bar this week.

Signal laggards:

The read. On the bear side the composition inverts: of Western Europe Semiconductor Equipment & Materials's 62 bearish fires this week, 24 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

1 divergence flag tripped this week (1 hidden-base), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - LATAM — Latin America Financial Services took the lead from Latin America Industrials (10-05).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Latin America Energy printed a +41 net signal day on 10-05 (+3.3σ); LATAM printed a +603 net signal day on 10-05 (+3.1σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Latin America leads on both counts: +11.5% on the week with a +1,617 cumulative signal net (+2.6σ vs its own year) — the only region where price strength and participation agree at scale. Asia ex-JP/CN is the weak tail of the board at -0.2σ.

Momentum Breadth

RSI Extremes weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.2.

Trend Breadth

52-Week High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.3.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 7 weeks running inside 2σ.

HYG weekly net signals (bars) with HYG price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.0.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

Still no sector standing out — rotation without conviction, second week.

Consumer Defensive sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.2.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Does trend confirm? Momentum flipped (MACD Breadth); the rally graduates from bounce to trend only if 200 DMA Breadth or 52-Week High/Low turns positive.
2. HH/HL Structure at +11 — still hugging zero, second week.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Oct 2, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,723 (-0.3%).
• 🔴 Breadth: Both momentum (2/6) and trend (0/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes — slightly above-average forward returns from mean-reversion.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — Asia ex-JP/CN. 3 of the bottom 8 industry readings are Asia ex-JP/CN groups.

Last week's report leaned cautious (0 green, 2 amber, 2 red). What happened: the S&P rose +1.1%. Score it a miss. The cautious lean was wrong for the week. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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