Weekly Market Breadth Report — October 02, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 was roughly flat this week (-0.3%) to 7,723. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -0.6% to 160. Both momentum (2/6) and trend (0/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes — slightly above-average forward returns from mean-reversion. Best performer: Nikkei 225 (+2.9%). Weakest: CAC 40 (-2.2%).

Slightly more bearish than the 1-year weekly average (z=-0.9).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,723 (-0.3%).
• 🔴 Breadth: Both momentum (2/6) and trend (0/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes — slightly above-average forward returns from mean-reversion.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — Asia ex-JP/CN. 3 of the bottom 8 industry readings are Asia ex-JP/CN groups.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (42% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 42%, mid-zone. The washout line at 20% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders: no industry cleared the ±1.8σ bar this week.

Signal laggards:

The read. The laggards are equally one theme — Asia ex-JP/CN — and there the composition inverts: of Western Europe Banks - Regional's 367 bearish fires this week, 243 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

3 divergence flags tripped this week (2 hidden-base, 1 thin-rally), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Western Europe Real Estate — Western Europe Real Estate took the lead from Western Europe REITs (10-01).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Latin America Department Stores printed a -22 net signal day on 10-02 (-3.1σ); Japan Integrated Freight & Logistics printed a -41 net signal day on 09-29 (-2.8σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -6.3% with a -1.3σ signal week. Japan is red on both counts: -1.7% with a -1.3σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

New 20D High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.7.

Trend Breadth

Breakout / Breakdown weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.8.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 6 weeks running inside 2σ.

HYG weekly net signals (bars) with HYG price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.1.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

No sector's advance/decline week stands out against its own year — rotation, not conviction.

Financial Services sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.7.

What to Watch Next Week

1. HH/HL Structure at -8 — the closest breadth index to a sign flip. The side it lands on next week is information.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Sep 25, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.2% to 7,743, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +1.1%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (46% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Last week's report leaned bullish (1 green, 2 amber, 0 red). What happened: the S&P moved -0.3%. Mixed week, mixed call — no point claimed either way. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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