Weekly Market Breadth Report — September 25, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 rallied this week (+1.2%) to 7,743. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +1.1% to 161. Momentum (4/6) and trend (2/6) are both in the mid-range — near-baseline forward returns historically. Best performer: Nikkei 225 (+2.1%). Weakest: Hang Seng (-1.0%).

Signal balance is near its 1-year norm — nothing unusual this week.

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.2% to 7,743, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +1.1%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (46% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 46%, mid-zone. The washout line at 20% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders: no industry cleared the ±1.8σ bar this week.

Signal laggards:

The read. On the bear side the composition inverts: of Eastern Europe Utilities - Renewable's 104 bearish fires this week, 99 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

1 divergence flag tripped this week (1 thin-rally), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Eastern Europe Industrials — Eastern Europe Conglomerates took the lead from Eastern Europe Transportation (09-21). - Asia ex-JP/CN Apparel & Luxury — Asia ex-JP/CN Textile Manufacturing took the lead from Asia ex-JP/CN Luxury Goods (09-23).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Eastern Europe Renewable Utilities printed a -31 net signal day on 09-21 (-3.0σ); Eastern Europe Utilities - Renewable printed a -31 net signal day on 09-21 (-3.0σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -6.8% with a -1.4σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

MACD Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.0.

Trend Breadth

200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.3.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 5 weeks running inside 2σ.

TLT weekly net signals (bars) with TLT price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.0.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

On the other side, Utilities is running -2.2σ below its one-year A/D norm.

Utilities sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.2.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Does trend confirm? Momentum flipped (Weekly Movers (±10%)); the rally graduates from bounce to trend only if 200 DMA Breadth or 52-Week High/Low turns positive.
2. Bollinger Band at +28 — the closest breadth index to a sign flip. The side it lands on next week is information.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Sep 18, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,650 (-0.1%).
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum improving while trend deteriorating — a divergence. Short-term bounce within structural weakness. Modestly above-average forward returns historically, though not statistically significant.
• 🟢 MSCI World fired a bullish stochastic cross on Thursday (chart, Sep 17, index at 4,922) — slow %K turned up through %D from the oversold zone. Since 2015, the five sessions after this cross have averaged

Last week's report leaned cautious (1 green, 4 amber, 1 red). What happened: the S&P rose +1.2%. Score it a miss. The cautious lean was wrong for the week. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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