Weekly Market Breadth Report — October 23, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 was roughly flat this week (-0.5%) to 7,624. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -0.6% to 157. Both momentum (2/6) and trend (0/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes — slightly above-average forward returns from mean-reversion. Best performer: Russell 2000 (+2.0%). Weakest: Hang Seng (-4.5%).

Slightly more bearish than the 1-year weekly average (z=-0.9).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,624 (-0.5%).
• 🔴 Breadth: Both momentum (2/6) and trend (0/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes — slightly above-average forward returns from mean-reversion.
• 🟢 MSCI World fired a bullish stochastic cross on Tuesday (chart, Oct 20, index at 4,922) — slow %K turned up through %D from the oversold zone. Since 2015, the five sessions after this cross have averaged +0.7% against +0.2% for a typical five-session stretch, finishing positive 68% of the time (n=103). A modest historical tilt, not a forecast.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — Asia ex-JP/CN. 6 of the bottom 8 industry readings are Asia ex-JP/CN groups.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (56% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 56%, mid-zone. The overbought line at 80% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders:

Signal laggards:

The read. The strongest surge has trend-family confirmation: United States Mortgage Finance logged 53 bullish signals this week, 37 of them trend-type (breakouts, structure, moving-average confirmations) against 16 oversold-type. That is a rally the engine is confirming, not bottom-fishing.

The laggards are equally one theme — Asia ex-JP/CN — and there the composition inverts: of Asia ex-JP/CN Specialty Chemicals's 365 bearish fires this week, 319 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

2 divergence flags tripped this week (2 hidden-base), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Eastern Europe Basic Materials — Eastern Europe Chemicals took the lead from Eastern Europe Metals & Mining (10-19). - Eastern Europe Industrials — Eastern Europe Construction & Engineering took the lead from Eastern Europe Industrial Equipment (10-19).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Latin America Department Stores printed a -20 net signal day on 10-23 (-2.8σ); United States Insurance - Life printed a -31 net signal day on 10-23 (-2.7σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Asia ex-JP/CN is red on both counts: -3.3% with a -1.4σ signal week. Middle East & Africa is red on both counts: -2.7% with a -1.6σ signal week. Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -7.8% with a -1.8σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

New 20D High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.8.

Trend Breadth

Fresh 52W High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.7.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 9 weeks running inside 2σ.

GLD weekly net signals (bars) with GLD price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.5.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

On the other side, Utilities is running -2.1σ below its one-year A/D norm.

Utilities sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.2.

What to Watch Next Week

1. HH/HL Structure at -77 sits a nudge from zero.
2. The confirmed rallies (United States groups, +14% to +14% price weeks): whether trend-family confirmation persists, or the moves digest.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Oct 16, 2026:

• 🔴 S&P 500: Fell -1.9% to 7,659. Breadth confirms the weakness.
• 🔴 MSCI World (ACWI): Lost -2.0% — selling pressure is global.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — United States. 4 of the bottom 8 industry readings are United States groups.

Last week's report leaned cautious (0 green, 1 amber, 3 red). What happened: the S&P moved -0.5%. Mixed week, mixed call — no point claimed either way. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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