Weekly Market Breadth Report — September 18, 2026

Generated automatically from Chartlas market data; methodology at /docs/methodology. Not investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 was roughly flat this week (-0.1%) to 7,650. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -0.6% to 159. Momentum is mid-range (4/6) while trend structure is weak (1/6). The trend has been broken but momentum has not collapsed — the strongest setup in our backtest: +3.4% average over the following 4 weeks vs +1.1% baseline. Best performer: Nikkei 225 (+1.6%). Weakest: Dow Jones (-1.7%).

Signal balance is near its 1-year norm — nothing unusual this week.

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,650 (-0.1%).
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum improving while trend deteriorating — a divergence. Short-term bounce within structural weakness. Modestly above-average forward returns historically, though not statistically significant.
• 🟢 MSCI World fired a bullish stochastic cross on Thursday (chart, Sep 17, index at 4,922) — slow %K turned up through %D from the oversold zone. Since 2015, the five sessions after this cross have averaged +0.7% against +0.2% for a typical five-session stretch, finishing positive 68% of the time (n=103). A modest historical tilt, not a forecast.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — Eastern Europe. 5 of the bottom 8 industry readings are Eastern Europe groups.
• 🟡 Energy tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Middle East & Africa, Latin America; 42 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (50% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 50%, mid-zone. The washout line at 20% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders:

Signal laggards:

The read. The strongest surge has trend-family confirmation: Japan Software - Infrastructure logged 120 bullish signals this week, 97 of them trend-type (breakouts, structure, moving-average confirmations) against 23 oversold-type. That is a rally the engine is confirming, not bottom-fishing.

The laggards are equally one theme — Eastern Europe — and there the composition inverts: of Eastern Europe Utilities - Renewable's 132 bearish fires this week, 118 were trend-family breakdowns. Downtrend intact — another week, more groups.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

Energy tripped the thin-rally flag in 2 regions this week (Middle East & Africa, Latin America; 42 members combined) — prices at or near one-year highs while 10-day breadth runs negative. The same flag, same sector, independently across regions: the rally has outrun its own participation. It resolves by breadth catching up or price coming back.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Western Europe Utilities — Western Europe Renewable Utilities took the lead from Western Europe Regulated Utilities (09-14). - Japan Healthcare — Japan Pharma took the lead from Japan Medical Devices (09-14).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Western Europe Telecom printed a -91 net signal day on 09-18 (-4.9σ); Western Europe Telecom Services printed a -90 net signal day on 09-18 (-4.9σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Japan: signal accumulation (+1.0σ) ahead of a flat tape (+1.0%) — participation building before price. Eastern Europe is red on both counts: -11.3% with a -2.6σ signal week.

Momentum Breadth

Bollinger Band weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.0.

Trend Breadth

200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.6.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

ETF board quiet again — 4 weeks running inside 2σ.

EWJ weekly net signals (bars) with EWJ price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.2.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

No sector's advance/decline week stands out against its own year — rotation, not conviction.

Utilities sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.1.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Does trend confirm? Momentum flipped (Advance / Decline); the rally graduates from bounce to trend only if 200 DMA Breadth or 52-Week High/Low turns positive.
2. The thin-rally flags. Either breadth catches up (flags resolve quietly) or the first red week hits these groups hardest.
3. MACD Breadth at +11 — nearest to a sign flip. Watch which side it picks.
4. The confirmed rallies (Japan groups, +4% to +4% price weeks): whether trend-family confirmation persists, or the moves digest.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Sep 11, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,657 (-0.8%).
• 🔴 MSCI World (ACWI): Lost -1.0% — selling pressure is global.
• 🔴 The weak side is one theme too — United States. 3 of the bottom 8 industry readings are United States groups.

Last week's report leaned cautious (0 green, 4 amber, 2 red). What happened: the S&P moved -0.1%. Mixed week, mixed call — no point claimed either way. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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