Weekly Market Breadth Report — August 07, 2026

This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.

Market Overview

S&P 500 rallied this week (+3.6%) to 7,758. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +3.2% to 161. Momentum (4/6) and trend (3/6) are both in the mid-range — near-baseline forward returns historically. Best performer: NASDAQ Composite (+5.2%). Weakest: Hang Seng (-0.8%).

Slightly more bullish than the 1-year weekly average (z=+0.9).

S&P 500 with regime episode markers — one marker per episode, matching the /regime monitor. Green = washouts / 90% up-volume days, red = global Hindenburg episodes / 90% down-volume days.

Key Takeaways

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +3.6% to 7,758, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +3.2%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
• 🟢 The week's bullish theme is Asia ex-JP/CN. 5 of the top 8 industry surges are Asia ex-JP/CN groups with +7% to +14% price weeks.
• 🟡 Defensives are leading the advance/decline board on an up week — Healthcare at +2.2σ vs a +3.6% S&P week. Broad participation, wrong leadership for a risk-on tape.
• 🟡 The regime board is quiet. No washout (72% above the 200-DMA), no capitulation days, last global Hindenburg episode Jun 1, 2026. Quiet is information too.

Stocks with the Most Signals

Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.

Regime Monitor

The three breadth conditions that carried a measured forward edge in our backtest, tracked as episodes. Full detail at chartlas.com/regime.

How we read it: nothing on the board argues for either aggression or defense right now — the washout gauge sits at 72%, mid-zone. The overbought line at 80% is the nearer boundary if the current move extends. 3 global Hindenburg episodes inside twelve months is above the long-run cadence of roughly two — the split-market condition (heavy new highs and new lows together) keeps recurring, and the month after an episode has averaged about three points below a typical month in our history. The most recent (Jun 1, 2026) is stale; a fresh one would move this from footnote to headline. No 90% volume days this week (last down-day episode: Dec 31, 2025).

Where the Signals Are — Industry Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per industry (Investable universe), scored against that industry's own year of weekly readings. Click any name to open it in the Explorer.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs the group's own year of weeks. Labels: the same group's 1-week price move.

Signal leaders:

Signal laggards:

The read. The leaders are one theme — Asia ex-JP/CN (metal fabrication, biotechnology, specialty chemicals, specialty industrial machinery) — and their bullish fires are dominated by the trend family: Asia ex-JP/CN Specialty Industrial Machinery logged 663 bullish signals this week, 526 of them trend-type (breakouts, structure, moving-average confirmations) against 122 oversold-type. That is a rally the engine is confirming, not bottom-fishing.

On the bear side the composition inverts: of United States Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing's 86 bearish fires this week, 59 were trend-family breakdowns. The downtrend is intact and broadening.

Rotation & Divergences

Structural flags from the CHRT tree this week.

6 divergence flags tripped this week (4 hidden-base, 2 thin-rally), but no cross-regional cluster — no sector set off the same flag in two or more regions, which is the coincidence we treat as signal.

Leadership changes worth noting (which industry drives its group's signal activity): - Asia ex-JP/CN Medical Devices — Asia ex-JP/CN Medical Instruments & Supplies took the lead from Asia ex-JP/CN Medical Devices - Other (08-04). - Middle East & Africa Industrials — Middle East & Africa Transportation took the lead from Middle East & Africa Conglomerates (08-04). - United States Software — United States Software - Infrastructure took the lead from United States Software - Application (08-04).

Sharpest single-day surprises: Asia ex-JP/CN Confectioners printed a +28 net signal day on 08-03 (+3.3σ); Middle East & Africa Travel & Leisure printed a +30 net signal day on 08-03 (+2.8σ) — worth a look if you own the space.

Geography Scan

The week's cumulative signal net per region vs that region's own year of weekly readings, alongside the week's price move.

Bars: the week's cumulative signal-net vs each region's own year of weeks. Diamonds: 1-week price move.

The read: Asia ex-JP/CN (+6.4%, +1.7σ) and United States (+3.6%, +1.1σ) lead on both counts — price strength and participation agreeing at scale. Latin America is the weak tail of the board at -1.1σ.

Momentum Breadth

Weekly Movers (±10%) weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.6.

Trend Breadth

200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.7.

Pattern Breadth

Major ETF Signals

Nothing on the ETF board is stretched beyond two standard deviations of its own one-year norm this week.

TLT weekly net signals (bars) with TLT price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.1.

Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)

Technology, Basic Materials and Healthcare sit two or more standard deviations above the advance/decline norm for the sector (+2.2σ, +2.4σ, +2.2σ). Note that defensives leading a +3.6% tape is not what a risk-on week usually looks like — participation is broad, but it is broad in the wrong places.

Basic Materials sector weekly A/D net with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.4.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Does trend confirm? Momentum flipped (New 20D High/Low); the rally graduates from bounce to trend only if 200 DMA Breadth or HH/HL Structure turns positive.
2. RSI Extremes at -412 — the closest breadth index to a sign flip. The side it lands on next week is information.
3. The confirmed rallies (Asia ex-JP/CN and United States groups, +7% to +14% price weeks): whether trend-family confirmation persists, or the moves digest.

Last Week We Said

From our report of Jul 31, 2026:

• 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.0% to 7,490, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
• 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +1.4%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
• 🟡 Breadth: Momentum (3/6) and trend (2/6) are both in the mid-range. Near-baseline forward returns — no strong directional signal from breadth.

Last week's report leaned cautious (1 green, 3 amber, 1 red). What happened: the S&P rose +3.6%. Score it a miss. The cautious lean was wrong for the week. The tally continues next week.

Generated by Chartlas — equity screening & signal alerts for discretionary investors. Forward-return references are averages from our 2015–2026 backtest on ~31,000 securities; they are tendencies, not predictions. Full methodology on the Regime and Breadth pages. Not investment advice.

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