Weekly Market Breadth Report — June 26, 2026
Corrected 18 August 2026. This post was produced by an earlier breadth/regime engine later found to contain calculation errors. In this post: advance/decline figures were computed from a contaminated series and have been recomputed from the corrected data; one regime-signal takeaway was reworded — the signal did fire, but its forward-return framing did not survive revalidation; forward-return claims that rested on a backtest of the same faulty series have been dropped; 2 charts plotted from the old engine have been removed; the 'what happened' scorecard on the previous week's takeaways has been dropped. Price data, signal counts, ETF tables and index moves are unaffected.
This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Market Overview
S&P 500 fell this week (-2.0%) to 7,354. MSCI World (ACWI) lost -2.2% to 154. Both momentum (1/6) and trend (1/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes. Best performer: FTSE 100 (+1.4%). Weakest: Hang Seng (-5.2%).
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | 1Y Avg | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Signal % | 38.9% | 55.0% | 54.0% | -2.6 |
| Bullish Signals | 104,566 | 115,121 | ||
| Bearish Signals | 164,407 | 94,193 |
Net bullish balance of -59,841 puts this week in the bottom ~5% of all weeks over the past year (z=-2.6).
Key Takeaways
- 🔴 S&P 500: Fell -2.0% to 7,354. Both momentum and trend breadth are weak — broad weakness across timeframes.
- 🔴 MSCI World (ACWI): Lost -2.2% — selling pressure is global.
- 🔴 Breadth: Both momentum (1/6) and trend (1/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes.
- 🔴 Breadth — 52-Week High/Low: At an extreme reading (z=-3.1). Uncommon weakness — could mark a washout or further downside.
- 🟡 S&P 500: A High/Low Divergence fired — the advance-decline line hit a 60-day high but new highs failed to keep pace. Descriptive context only; this signal fires often and was weak evidence on its own in our backtest.
Stocks with the Most Signals
Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Signals | Net | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 302132.SZ | AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company | Technology | 48 | -48 | +0% |
| 600460.SS | Hangzhou Silan Microelectronic | Technology | 30 | +24 | +20% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Technology | 28 | -22 | -12% |
| 600999.SS | China Merchants Securities Co. | Financial Services | 28 | +20 | +10% |
| 600703.SS | Sanan Optoelectronics Co.,Ltd | Technology | 28 | +24 | +24% |
| 002371.SZ | NAURA Technology Group Co., Lt | Technology | 27 | +23 | +13% |
| 601066.SS | CSC Financial Co., Ltd. | Financial Services | 27 | +19 | +22% |
| 002409.SZ | Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co., L | Technology | 27 | +23 | +26% |
Momentum Breadth
Short-term oscillators and price velocity indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance / Decline | -20,400 | -1,972 | -18,428 | -1.5 | Weakening |
| New 20D High/Low | -10,350 | -864 | -9,486 | -1.5 | Weakening |
| MACD Breadth | -2,113 | +4,036 | -6,149 | -0.8 | Flipped bearish |
| RSI Extremes | +199 | +160 | +39 | +0.8 | Strengthening |
| Bollinger Band | -524 | -1,968 | +1,444 | +0.2 | Improving |
| Weekly Movers (±10%) | -3,464 | +9,034 | -12,498 | -1.5 | Flipped bearish |
New 20D High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -1.5.
Trend Breadth
Longer-term structural indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52-Week High/Low | -6,132 | -123 | -6,009 | -3.1 | Weakening |
| Fresh 52W High/Low | -822 | +127 | -949 | -2.7 | Flipped bearish |
| 200 DMA Breadth | -17,235 | -10,405 | -6,830 | -2.1 | Weakening |
| MA Cross (Golden/Death) | -194 | +52 | -246 | -0.8 | Flipped bearish |
| HH/HL Structure | -155 | -86 | -69 | -1.0 | Weakening |
| Breakout / Breakdown | +413 | +361 | +52 | -0.7 | Strengthening |
52-Week High/Low weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -3.1.
Pattern Breadth
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Top/Bottom | -445 | -94 | -351 | -1.5 | Weakening |
| Failed Pattern | +2 | +271 | -269 | +0.3 | Deteriorating |
Major ETF Signals
| Ticker | Name | Momentum | Trend | Pattern | Net | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Russell 2000 | 4↑ 1↓ | 8↑ | — | +11 | +1.8 |
| EWJ | Japan | 2↑ 5↓ | 3↑ 1↓ | — | -1 | -0.7 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | 5↓ | 5↓ | — | -10 | -1.7 |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | 2↑ 5↓ | 2↑ | — | -1 | -0.5 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | 4↓ | 2↑ 1↓ | — | -3 | -1.1 |
| DIA | Dow Jones | 3↓ | 4↑ | — | +1 | -0.0 |
| USO | Oil (USO) | 2↑ 5↓ | — | — | -3 | -0.8 |
| GLD | Gold | 4↑ | 1↓ | — | +3 | +0.1 |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | 1↓ | 1↑ 2↓ | — | -2 | -0.7 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 2↓ | 1↓ | — | -3 | -1.2 |
| EFA | EAFE (Dev ex-US) | 1↑ | 1↓ | — | +0 | -0.3 |
| SPY | S&P 500 | 1↑ | 1↓ | — | +0 | -0.8 |
IWM weekly net signals (bars) with IWM price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: +1.8.
Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)
| Sector | Net | % Bullish | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | +168 | 51.4% | +0.3 |
| Financial Services | +13 | 50.1% | -0.1 |
| Utilities | -291 | 45.0% | -1.1 |
| Healthcare | -402 | 48.2% | -0.0 |
| Energy | -540 | 41.3% | -1.5 |
| Consumer Defensive | -605 | 45.7% | -0.6 |
| Communication Services | -849 | 39.9% | -1.6 |
| Consumer Cyclical | -2,615 | 40.9% | -1.4 |
| Basic Materials | -2,809 | 38.1% | -1.8 |
| Technology | -4,308 | 37.5% | -1.9 |
| Industrials | -5,463 | 38.3% | -1.8 |
What to Watch Next Week
- 200 DMA Breadth at -17,235. Continuing to weaken.
- RSI Extremes leading at +199. Watch for continuation vs exhaustion.
- MACD Breadth just flipped — need follow-through to confirm.
Last Week We Said
From our report on June 19:
- 🟡 S&P 500: Flat this week at 7,501 (+0.9%).
- 🟡 Breadth: Momentum (3/6) and trend (3/6) are both in the mid-range. No strong directional signal from breadth.
- 🔴 Breadth — 200 DMA Breadth: At an extreme reading (z=-1.8). Uncommon weakness — could mark a washout or further downside.
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