Weekly Market Breadth Report — July 03, 2026
Corrected 18 August 2026. This post was produced by an earlier breadth/regime engine later found to contain calculation errors. In this post: advance/decline figures were computed from a contaminated series and have been recomputed from the corrected data; one regime-signal takeaway described an event the corrected data does not contain and has been removed; forward-return claims that rested on a backtest of the same faulty series have been dropped; 2 charts plotted from the old engine have been removed; the 'what happened' scorecard on the previous week's takeaways has been dropped. Price data, signal counts, ETF tables and index moves are unaffected.
This report is AI-generated from Chartlas's market data and breadth analytics. It is not human-written market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Market Overview
S&P 500 rallied this week (+1.8%) to 7,483. MSCI World (ACWI) gained +1.2% to 156. Momentum is strong (6/6) with trend in the mid-range (3/6). Broad short-term participation while the structural picture is mixed. Best performer: DAX 40 (+4.5%). Weakest: Russell 2000 (-0.5%).
| Metric | This Week | Last Week | 1Y Avg | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish Signal % | 60.4% | 39.3% | 54.2% | +1.1 |
| Bullish Signals | 142,638 | 106,583 | ||
| Bearish Signals | 93,670 | 164,571 |
This week's net balance skews bullish relative to the 1-year norm (z=+1.1).
Key Takeaways
- 🟡 S&P 500: Rallied +1.8% to 7,483, but breadth is not fully confirming. Price is moving up while internals remain mixed.
- 🟢 MSCI World (ACWI): Gained +1.2%, tracking US markets. The rally is global.
- 🟢 Breadth: Momentum is strong (6/6) with trend in the mid-range (3/6). Broad short-term participation while the structural picture is still mixed. Need trend confirmation for a sustained move. Momentum improved from last week. Trend is recovering.
- 🟢 Breadth — RSI Extremes: At an extreme reading (z=+2.3). Uncommon strength suggesting real conviction.
Stocks with the Most Signals
Large-cap stocks ($10B+) with 5+ signals fired this week.
| Symbol | Name | Sector | Signals | Net | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 002653.SZ | Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co | Healthcare | 27 | +23 | +38% |
| 302132.SZ | AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company | Technology | 27 | -21 | +0% |
| BAER.SW | Julius Bär Gruppe AG | Financial Services | 24 | +20 | +7% |
| AOT.BK | Airports of Thailand Public Co | Industrials | 24 | +20 | +3% |
| 002422.SZ | Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical C | Healthcare | 24 | +22 | +35% |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | Healthcare | 24 | +20 | +19% |
| 600160.SS | Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. | Basic Materials | 23 | +15 | -3% |
| ALV.DE | Allianz SE | Financial Services | 23 | +19 | +3% |
Momentum Breadth
Short-term oscillators and price velocity indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance / Decline | +17,987 | -20,400 | +38,387 | +1.5 | Flipped bullish |
| New 20D High/Low | +2,637 | -10,350 | +12,987 | +0.2 | Flipped bullish |
| MACD Breadth | +3,636 | -2,113 | +5,749 | +1.4 | Flipped bullish |
| RSI Extremes | +2,464 | +199 | +2,265 | +2.3 | Strengthening |
| Bollinger Band | +617 | -524 | +1,141 | +0.7 | Flipped bullish |
| Weekly Movers (±10%) | +2,056 | -3,464 | +5,520 | -0.2 | Flipped bullish |
RSI Extremes weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: +2.3.
Trend Breadth
Longer-term structural indicators.
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52-Week High/Low | -279 | -6,132 | +5,853 | -1.0 | Improving |
| Fresh 52W High/Low | +123 | -822 | +945 | -0.7 | Flipped bullish |
| 200 DMA Breadth | -16,022 | -17,235 | +1,213 | -2.0 | Stable |
| MA Cross (Golden/Death) | -257 | -194 | -63 | -1.0 | Weakening |
| HH/HL Structure | +69 | -155 | +224 | -0.5 | Flipped bullish |
| Breakout / Breakdown | +766 | +413 | +353 | -0.2 | Strengthening |
200 DMA Breadth weekly net (bars) with S&P 500 price (right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.0.
Pattern Breadth
| Index | This Week | Last Week | Change | Z (1Y) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Top/Bottom | +82 | -445 | +527 | +0.0 | Flipped bullish |
| Failed Pattern | +334 | +2 | +332 | +1.8 | Strengthening |
Major ETF Signals
| Ticker | Name | Momentum | Trend | Pattern | Net | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | Dow Jones | 5↑ 1↓ | 5↑ | — | +9 | +1.8 |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | 4↓ | 2↓ | — | -6 | -2.0 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | 4↓ | 2↑ | — | -2 | -0.9 |
| GLD | Gold | 4↑ | 1↑ 1↓ | — | +4 | +0.3 |
| IBIT | Bitcoin | 5↑ | — | — | +5 | +0.9 |
| HYG | High Yield Corp | 2↑ 1↓ | 1↑ 1↓ | — | +1 | +0.1 |
| USO | Oil (USO) | 3↑ 2↓ | — | — | +1 | +0.0 |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 1↓ | 1↑ 1↓ | — | -1 | -0.8 |
| EFA | EAFE (Dev ex-US) | — | 2↑ 1↓ | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| SPY | S&P 500 | 1↑ | 2↑ | — | +3 | -0.1 |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | — | 1↑ 1↓ | — | +0 | -0.5 |
TLT weekly net signals (bars) with TLT price (blue line, right axis). 1Y z-score: -2.0.
Sector Breadth (Advance/Decline)
| Sector | Net | % Bullish | Z (1Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | +3,324 | 57.2% | +1.2 |
| Healthcare | +2,505 | 61.8% | +2.1 |
| Technology | +2,321 | 57.0% | +1.1 |
| Consumer Cyclical | +2,200 | 57.9% | +1.5 |
| Financial Services | +2,104 | 59.6% | +1.5 |
| Basic Materials | +1,451 | 56.3% | +1.0 |
| Consumer Defensive | +1,061 | 57.7% | +1.8 |
| Communication Services | +708 | 58.8% | +1.8 |
| Real Estate | +559 | 54.7% | +0.8 |
| Energy | +214 | 53.7% | +0.4 |
| Utilities | +103 | 51.8% | +0.3 |
What to Watch Next Week
- 200 DMA Breadth at -16,022. Improving but still negative.
- Advance / Decline leading at +17,987. Watch for continuation vs exhaustion.
- Advance / Decline just flipped — need follow-through to confirm.
Last Week We Said
From our report on June 26:
- 🔴 S&P 500: Fell -2.0% to 7,354. Both momentum and trend breadth are weak — broad weakness across timeframes.
- 🔴 MSCI World (ACWI): Lost -2.2% — selling pressure is global.
- 🔴 Breadth: Both momentum (1/6) and trend (1/6) are weak. Broad weakness across timeframes.
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